FTI Consulting (NYSE:FCN) expects U.S. online retail sales growth of 25% Y/Y to $748B in 2020 vs. $598B in 2019 and its pre-pandemic 2020 forecast of $677B, the strongest growth year for online retail sales since 2006.
The forecast projects online market share of total retail sales will increase by 350 bps in 2020, the equivalent of ~2.5 years of market share gains in one year, and 220 bps above previous estimate.
The forecast projects online retail sales of $1T by 2023, a year earlier than last year’s projections. Total online market share is projected to reach 27% by 2025 and 33% by 2030, compared to 19.2% in 2020.
“COVID-19 has impacted our everyday lives in profound ways, and it has accelerated trends already in place,” said Christa Hart, a Senior Managing Director in the Retail & Consumer Products practice at FTI Consulting. “This year, we have seen a surge in online commerce and a quickened pace of retail store closings throughout the country due mostly to forced adoption or further adoption of online shopping by housebound consumers. Even when COVID-19 subsides and more normal lifestyles can resume, this historic event likely has permanently changed the ways in which we choose to shop for various goods.”
