How Much Higher Can McCormick Stock Realistically Go?

11/19/18

There has been one constant in this market over the past few years, particularly in the second half of the nearly decade-long bull run. If you sell a quality company based on valuation - or recommend that others do so - you almost certainly will look foolish.

When it comes to McCormick (MKC) (MKC.V), I've generally followed that rule. MKC has been expensive for some time now, spending the last few years as one of, if not the, most dearly valued CPG plays in the market by EV/EBITDA, which accounts for a rather heavy debt load here. But I bought MKC last year on a short-lived dip following its acquisition of RB Foods, and argued as recently as July that MKC deserves to be priced as an outlier in what remains a tough sector.

And then I sold MKC stock last month. With the stock rallying again despite what looked from here like an unspectacular Q3 report, $135 simply seemed like too good a price to pass up. And yet - despite a broad market that saw a number of dearly-valued stocks pull back - MKC has risen another 11% on really no news. It's gained 41% since that strong Q2 report in late June. Perhaps more amazingly, it's risen 30% since the day after that release - while the S&P 500 has gained 0.4%.

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