Newly released Restaurant Association of Maryland study warns that women and less educated employees will face the brunt of the layoffs.

Baltimore City would lose at least 3,546 jobs if the City Council approves legislation that increases the minimum wage to $15 an hour, according to a study released today by the Restaurant Association of Maryland.

The majority of job losses would be concentrated among workers with a high school degree or less, many of them working in the retail, leisure and hospitality industries, according to the study, The Impact of a $15 Minimum Wage in Baltimore, Maryland, by economists Dr. William Even, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio, and Dr. David Macpherson, Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas. Of the 3,546 jobs that would be eliminated, more than 2,000 are held by women.

“Passage of this legislation will force employers to eliminate jobs because they will not be able to afford to pay such a high minimum wage to unskilled, entry-level workers,” said Marshall Weston, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer of the Restaurant Association of Maryland, a 2,000-member state-wide trade association representing the state’s restaurants. “Price increases cannot fully offset the massive hike in labor costs because businesses cannot risk raising prices when customer traffic in the City is already at historic lows.”

“If the wage increase is passed it will force many businesses to close or relocate outside the City,” Weston continued.

The City Council Bill 16-0655, sponsored by Councilmember Mary Pat Clarke, comes at a time when Baltimore City’s unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in April, compared with 4.7 percent for Baltimore County, 3.7 percent for Anne Arundel County and 4.4 percent for the state.

The bill not only increases the City’s minimum wage from $8.25 an hour to $15 an hour by 2020, but also phases out the tip credit, and establishes automatic future minimum wage hikes set in accordance with annual cost-of-living increases as determined by the City Wage Commission.

In 2014, the Maryland General Assembly passed legislation that gradually increases the state minimum wage to $10.10 an hour by 2018. The current $8.25 minimum wage is set to increase to $8.75 an hour on July 1, 2016, $9.25 an hour on July 1, 2017, and $10.10 an hour on July 1, 2018. State lawmakers kept the minimum cash wage for tipped employees at $3.63 an hour.

The economists, who conducted their analysis using nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office methodology, said that the estimated job losses should be “considered conservative, particularly because of the potential loss of business to neighboring Baltimore County where the minimum wage isn’t expected to increase above the state level.”

“Raising wages is an admirable goal, but the evidence suggests that accomplishing this goal with a blunt wage mandate could do more harm than good,” they said.

They noted that a survey of labor economists by the University of New Hampshire, found that nearly three-quarters oppose a broad minimum wage hike of this magnitude and believe it would have a negative impact on the number of jobs available.

About the Maryland Restaurant Association:

The Restaurant Association of Maryland (RAM) is a 2,000 member statewide trade association operated for the purpose of helping Maryland restaurants succeed. For over 75 years, RAM has been run by restaurateurs working for the benefit of its members and the restaurant industry as a whole. RAM leads and supports the foodservice industry in Maryland by showcasing member restaurants, offering programs that reduce operating costs and advocating for the interests of foodservice businesses. For more information visit marylandrestaurants.com.