Spencer Levy, Americas Head of Research for CBRE, covered a wide variety of subjects related to real estate and the prospects for the national economy at the NAIOP Maryland annual Capital Stack conference, held recently at the University of Baltimore, while also tossing in tidbits that “people living in Seattle don’t drink Starbucks coffee” and the fact that he is rooting for “a shallow recession” in the United States. A story describing his dealings with Donald Trump, while working as a young attorney in New York City, was among the highlights of the presentation.
His comments included:
- “the stock market is extremely resilient. There were wild swings beginning at 2 am when it was apparent that Donald Trump would be our next President. With technology and the speed in which news and information is received, the stock market is reacting quicker. Even with all the wild swings, the market had stabilized by the end of the day after the election.”
- “there is too much information being consumed today. People don’t know what to do with all the information that is being thrown their way on a daily basis. Fear remains the biggest motivation to react in a certain way.”
- “no one expected the election of Donald Trump but it is a curve-bender and will positively impact economic growth based on his policies regarding stimulation, lower taxes and less regulation, among other things. There are only two things that matter in our economy: growth and jobs. His Presidency will positively impact both.”
- “Universities are a major driver for a city’s economy. You see that here with the University at Baltimore and it is especially apparent in Pittsburgh with Carnegie Mellon University and in Ann Arbor, Michigan.”
- “the biggest risk for real estate in this environment is The Cycle. We have been in an upward real estate cycle - that also positively impacts our entire economy - for the past seven or eight years. History suggests that this cannot last. Typically, an event triggers a recessionary period, and we are targeting late 2018 or early 2019 as the time for our next recession. In fact, I am actually hoping we have a recession, but wishing for a shallow one. This beats the alternative – an extended period of stagnated growth. The economy of Japan has not grown for more than 25 years. I want the market to clear and for another upward path to quickly begin.”
- “Donald Trump has an internal image and an external image. His employees love him because he freely delegates and empowers them. When I was a twenty-five year old attorney working in Manhattan, among my first clients was Trump and I was involved in the sale of a hotel asset. I called him about an issue and asked him “what do you think?” This was the wrong thing to do. He wanted my opinion and that taught me an important lesson. I thought my career was over at the age of twenty-five. The voice of the President filters down to everything in this country and I fully expect him to temper his rhetoric when he assumes the presidency.”
- “When learning of the staffer that committed plagiarism when helping write his wife’s speech at the Republican National Convention, he chose not to fire him. I was not surprised by that. ‘We all make mistakes,” Trump said. ‘It is time to move forward.’”
Liz Tarran-Jones, Merritt Properties; James Knott, Jr., Knott Realty Group and Michele Salvino, First Potomac Realty Trust
Mark Levy, Rock Realty; Ed Brady, Chesapeake Real Estate Group; Hayes Merkert, III, Power Component Systems and Hayes Merkert, Cushman & Wakefield
Laura Westervelt, Cushman & Wakefield; Lacey Johansen, St. John Properties and Jean Farnsworth, Merritt Properties
Matt Garono, ReMax; Jerrell Duffy, Jr., M&T Bank; Brandon Jenkins, St. John Properties and Will McCullough, St. John Properties
Sean Doordan, St. John Properties; Ketch Secor, CBRE; Robb Aumiller, The Mackenzie Companies; Matt Melnick, Cushman & Wakefield and Brendan Gill, President of NAIOP Maryland and The Mackenzie Companies
